Scenario planning — three futures and what you would do in each
The problem
Your three-year plan has a base case, an upside at +20% and a downside at −20%. Then a marketplace changes its fee structure, which is in none of the three, and you have no prepared response at all. The scenarios prepared you for the one thing that was never the risk.
What you need
Business: kitchenware D2C, ₹1.4 crore, 60% marketplaces, 25% own site, 15% general trade. Plan: grow marketplace share, add SKUs, hold prices.
The tool
Any assistant, with your real business context
The prompt
What comes back
1. WHAT COULD MAKE YOUR PLAN WRONG — eight possibilities Marketplace fee or advertising cost structure shifts materially · a well-capitalised brand copies your seal feature · steel moves 30%+ structurally · marketplace algorithm change reduces organic discovery for small brands · quick commerce…
Verify before you use it
- Section 4 is the finding: your current plan points away from the action that is right in all three scenarios. That deserves a serious conversation.
- Verify every signal is observable with data you have. The competitor-hiring signal requires you to actually watch job postings monthly.
- Attach the three marketplace signals to your existing monthly review. A signal not on a report you already read will not be watched.
- Note the upside gap. Businesses prepare for downside scenarios and are equally unprepared for good news.