Build scenarios that differ in kind

Your three-year plan has a base case, an upside at +20% and a downside at −20%.

Before you use the output

• Section 4 is the finding: your current plan points away from the action that is right in all three scenarios. That deserves a serious conversation.
• Verify every signal is observable with data you have. The competitor-hiring signal requires you to actually watch job postings monthly.
• Attach the three marketplace signals to your existing monthly review. A signal not on a report you already read will not be watched.
• Note the upside gap. Businesses prepare for downside scenarios and are equally unprepared for good news.